Title:
A Multi-criteria Assessment of CBAM Compliance Readiness in Major Industries in Vietnam

Authors:
Nguyen Thi Thuy Hien, Pham Thu Ngan, Bui Mai Trang, Viet Nam

Abstract:

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism poses an unprecedented institutional and economic challenge to carbon-intensive export industries in developing nations. While existing literature heavily relies on macroeconomic simulations to forecast trade impacts, a critical gap remains in comparative sectoral assessments derived from firm-level empirical data. This study employs an Objective Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis integrated with the Entropy Weight Method to evaluate the compliance readiness of four key Vietnamese sectors, which include iron and steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizers. Drawing on purposive sampling and primary survey data from 134 export-oriented enterprises derived from an estimated population of 200 firms using Yamane’s formula, the research assesses sectoral preparedness across four core dimensions: emissions tracking capacity, green innovation, green supply chain management, and perceived compliance cost.  By replacing subjective expert-based weighting with data-driven weighting methods, the findings reveal significant structural heterogeneity. The aluminum sector, with a composite score of 3.50, and the fertilizer sector, with a score of 3.36, exhibit a proactive adaptation trajectory supported by robust carbon accounting frameworks. Conversely, the iron and steel sector and the cement sector, both scoring 2.93, exhibit a more reactive compliance approach primarily constrained by digital accounting deficits and high third-party verification costs. Furthermore, green supply chain management emerges as a systemic vulnerability across all sectors, highlighting that exporters are absorbing regulatory shocks in isolation without integrated upstream support. Ultimately, the study underscores that surviving cross-border environmental barriers requires targeted macroeconomic interventions, emphasizing the urgent need for a localized national emission factor database, specialized green credit funds, and ecosystem-wide supply chain incentives. 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51505/IJEBMR.2026.10718