Title:
Commodity Cycles, Macroeconomic Conditions, and Marketing Strategy Intervention: Evidence From Monthly Heavy Equipment Sales in Indonesia (2010-2024)

Authors:
Henry Yandi, Mr. Ahmad Ikhwan Setiawan, Indonesia

Abstract:

This study examines how commodity price cycles, macroeconomic conditions, and marketing strategy interventions jointly shape heavy equipment sales in Indonesia. Using monthly observations from a major manufacturer (2010-2024; n = 180), we construct a Commodity Conditions Index (CCI) and a Macroeconomic Conditions Index (MCI) via principal component analysis. An ARDL bounds approach indicates a long-run relationship, while an ECM shows partial adjustment. Commodity conditions and the marketing intervention pulse are positive and significant, whereas macro signals exhibit lagged and mixed effects. The error-correction term suggests that roughly one-fifth of short-run disequilibrium is corrected each month, offering practical guidance for campaign timing and demand planning.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51505/IJEBMR.2026.10306